Cognitive Bias: False Consensus Effect Bias

Principal Category: Cognitive Biases

Authors:
•  Tim McGuinness, Ph.D. – Anthropologist, Scientist, Director of the Society of Citizens Against Relationship Scams Inc.

The False Consensus Effect Bias leads individuals to overestimate the prevalence of their beliefs and behaviors among others, causing crime victims to feel isolated and misunderstood.

This cognitive bias stems from a desire for conformity and social acceptance, perpetuated by group settings and limited information. Victims of scams may fall prey to this bias, believing the consensus of the scammer’s fabricated associates validates their relationship, despite warnings from friends and family.

Understanding this bias is crucial in recognizing its influence on decision-making and social perceptions. Explore more biases in the SCARS MANUAL OF COGNITIVE BIASES.

False Consensus Effect Bias

False Consensus Effect Bias refers to the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share one’s beliefs, values, and behaviors.

This cognitive bias can affect crime victims by leading them to believe that their experiences and reactions to the crime are not normal or that they are alone in their feelings. This can lead to feelings of isolation and a lack of understanding from others which can further exacerbate the trauma of the crime.

In psychology, the false consensus effect, also known as consensus bias, is a pervasive cognitive bias that causes people to “see their own behavioral choices and judgments as relatively common and appropriate to existing circumstances”. In other words, they assume that their personal qualities, characteristics, beliefs, and actions are relatively widespread among the general population.

This false consensus is significant because it increases self-esteem (overconfidence effect). It can be derived from a desire to conform and be liked by others in a social environment. This bias is especially prevalent in group settings where one thinks the collective opinion of their own group matches that of the larger population. Since the members of a group reach a consensus and rarely encounter those who dispute it, they tend to believe that everybody thinks the same way. The false-consensus effect is not restricted to cases where people believe that their values are shared by the majority, but it still manifests as an overestimate of the extent of their belief.

Additionally, when confronted with evidence that a consensus does not exist, people often assume that those who do not agree with them are defective in some way. There is no single cause for this cognitive bias; the availability heuristic, self-serving bias, and naïve realism have been suggested as at least partial underlying factors.

The bias may also result, at least in part, from non-social stimulus-reward associations. Maintenance of this cognitive bias may be related to the tendency to make decisions with relatively little information. When faced with uncertainty and a limited sample from which to make decisions, people often “project” themselves onto the situation. When this personal knowledge is used as input to make generalizations, it often results in the false sense of being part of the majority.

One of the ways that we believe this plays a role during the scam is when friends or family members try to tell the victim that the person is a scammer and that the relationship is a scam.

Since the scammer has typically provided substantial proof of their life (though all lies) from the scammer’s fake associates (daughter, lawyer, business people, etc.) the victim feels that there is a consensus of those that are involved and that their family and friends are wrong.

More Cognitive Biases: SCARS MANUAL OF COGNITIVE BIASES (scampsychology.org)

Important Information for New Scam Victims

• See more at www.ScamVictimsSupport.org – a SCARS Website for New Scam Victims