---
title: "Cognitive Bias: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy Or This Then That"
canonical: https://scampsychology.org/cognitive-bias-post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc/
type: post
author: "SCARS Research Team"
published: 2024-04-30
modified: 2024-04-30
categories: ["• ARTICLE", "• COGNITIVE BIASES", "♦ COGNITIVE BIAS", "2024"]
summary: ""
organization: "Official SCARS Institute Journal of Scam Psychology & Recoverology"
organization_url: https://scampsychology.org/
llms: https://scampsychology.org/llms.txt
---

# Cognitive Bias: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy Or This Then That

# Cognitive Bias: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy Or 'This Then That'

### Principal Category: Cognitive Biases

##### Authors:
•  Tim McGuinness, Ph.D. – Anthropologist, Scientist, Director of the Society of Citizens Against Relationship Scams Inc.

The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy, attributing causation based solely on sequential events, is a cognitive trap exploited by scammers. Victims may wrongly link a scam email to subsequent financial loss, hindering recovery and discouraging seeking help. Education and critical thinking are crucial to combat this bias and empower individuals against manipulation. Recognizing this fallacy's impact on scams and victims highlights the importance of support and resilience in navigating digital landscapes.

## This Then That

## Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy Cognitive Bias

The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy leads individuals to believe that if one event follows another, the first event must have caused the second.

The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy, Latin for 'After This, Therefore Because of This," or 'This Then That' is a logical error in reasoning. It occurs when individuals mistakenly attribute causation to events merely because they happen sequentially. This fallacy overlooks other potential explanations and assumes a causal relationship where none may exist.

Scammers are adept at exploiting cognitive biases, including the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy, to manipulate their victims. Consider a scenario where a victim receives a suspicious email promising great wealth if they provide personal information. Subsequently, the victim's bank account is drained. The victim might erroneously conclude that the email caused the financial loss solely because it preceded it in time. In reality, the email and the financial loss could be unrelated, with the latter stemming from other factors like weak login security.

Scammers leverage this fallacy to create false narratives that deceive victims into believing their scams are legitimate. By orchestrating a sequence of events that appears connected, scammers reinforce the illusion of causation. For instance, a scammer might send a phishing email, followed by a phone call claiming to rectify a purported issue, and then witness the victim divulge sensitive information. The victim, swayed by the apparent sequence of events, may wrongly attribute the subsequent identity theft to the initial email.

For scam victims, falling prey to the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy can exacerbate their vulnerability and perpetuate their victimization. Once ensnared in a scam, victims may cling to the belief that their actions directly caused the outcomes they experience. This cognitive distortion can intensify feelings of guilt, shame, and self-blame, hindering their ability to recognize the true manipulative tactics employed by scammers.

Also, the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy can impede victims' recovery and discourage them from seeking help. Instead of acknowledging the sophistication of the scam and the calculated tactics of the scammer, victims may attribute their misfortune solely to their own actions. Consequently, they may hesitate to report the scam, seek legal recourse, or access support services designed to aid scam victims in navigating the aftermath of fraud.

To combat the detrimental effects of the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy, education and awareness are paramount. Empowering individuals with knowledge about cognitive biases, including this logical fallacy, can help inoculate them against manipulation by scammers. By promoting critical thinking skills and skepticism, people can learn to scrutinize causal relationships more objectively and discern genuine threats from deceptive ploys.

The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy is a cautionary tale, reminding us of the pitfalls of hasty assumptions and faulty reasoning. In the context of scams and scam victims, this cognitive bias underscores the importance of critical thinking, education, and support. By recognizing the manipulative tactics employed by scammers and challenging the narratives that blame victims for their misfortune.

### Explore more biases in the [SCARS MANUAL OF COGNITIVE BIASES](https://scampsychology.org/scars-manual-of-cognitive-biases-2024/)